Interesting Dick Hardon Analysis

This was posted by a Cubs fan in a forum discussing the Scott Hairston trade to the A's.


“Maybe the case with Mark Mulder, and letting Barry Zito walk in free agency... but he traded Tim Hudson who went on to continue being productive, and also traded Haren after 2007, and he's arguably the best pitcher in the NL this season.”

The Haren trade was an offer you cant refuse. I do not fault him for pulling that triggerall.

And as a Cubs fan, I can tell you he was right on Harden! Sure, he held up and produced to finish the end of the 08 season, but how much of that was the .259 BAbip? There is something big time wrong with Harden though, and I am sure he today knew was coming. We traded for damaged goods, and we are seeing the results of that damage now.

Harden averaged about 93.7 MPH on his fastball from 03-07. In 2008 it was 92.0, and 2009 has seen 91.8. He lost a MPH off his Change from 07 to 08, and lost another MPH from 08 to 09. But that is not even the real concern. He has gone from a guy throwing 4 to 5 pitches (FB, Split, Slider, Change and sometimes Curve), to a guy throwing 2! This is the pitch percentage regression

06 - 63.3% FB - 5.7% Change - 21.7% Split - 9.3% Slider
07 - 62.4% FB – 16.0% Change – 19.0% Split - 2.6% Slider
08 - 64.0% FB - 28.8% Change - 4.2% Split - 2.9% Slider
09 - 62.8% FB - 37.2% Change

From 5.7% to 28.8% on the change in a 3 year span while abandoning the Split Finger and Slider? Pitchers loosing speed on their fastball should not be relying on just a single secondary pitch, but that is just what he was doing.

Beane knew. The other teams probably did a better job of scouting and crunching numbers on him, leading them to stay away. I am not sure scouting or numbers are in the Hendry vocabulary though. Just glad he didn’t overpay!


I am one of those thinking Gallagher might not be what we have seen in the past. I didnt trust arms leaving the Oakland stable prior to Harden, but I thought maybe he had bucked the trend. He hadn’t, making it harder to think Gallagher will. Besides, I kind of think he gets credit as a better prospect then he actually was to begin with – for all the talk, he never really produced, anywhere, in his entire career.